SDL Update

Look at my SDL chart... i made a bad trade here but I'm still confident it can come good and break out above resistance around the 300p level. Even if this bounces again I'm going to hold as this one is waiting to crack.

My general rule is on the 3rd test you look for the breakout - i think this constitutes that.

A better trade would have been buying after the breakout but you live and learn!

Wellstream - Buy

Reinvested profits from Lloyds in Wellstream (WSML)

Targetting just over 5 quid - got in at 457p. The standard 10pc play - i'll move my stop up around that point and go from there!

Sold LloydsTSB

Exited my 59p entry trade at 71p for a nice 20% profit - why oh why can't all my trades be like this... I'm thinking about going back into PFC again now - although watching and waiting...

Disaster Strikes

Well it looks like round X with all the uncertainty rearing it's ugly head once again!

My portfolio is not looking pretty (IAP and SDL are terrible). Yes, I'm holding and I have not stopped out, i have broken my rules and now that they are so much below where my stop was. The problem being once you have broken your rule it becomes harder and harder to let go as you are convinced it will pick up - this is the zone that i am in at the moment and not sure how to get out... it really is a lot harder than you think (I know i am full of excuses!!!)

Thankfully on STAN i let my bet run to 690p where i got stopped out. I piled in again at 660p and I am currently long at £15 / point here as this is far far too low for such a great firm. These guys will go places and are incredibly cheap in my view... still that is what I said about IAP so take everything I say with a pinch of salt!

Lloyds is back up bouncing around the 60p mark - nice uptrend so let's see what this week brings. In the meantime i need to look for some more stocks to trade!

Update on positions

ICAP - bought in at 289p - dropped since I bought and seems to have real issues getting up above resistance at the 230-235p mark.  I am holding this as expecting upcoming Q1 results to be good and like the company as a longer term prospect.

SDL - bought in at 298p hoping for a breakout above 300p which happened momentarily but the shares have now settled back around the 290p mark.  I'm still in this one though and will take profit at 330p 

STAN - opened a spreadbet long this AM at 713p (strong support around just under the 700p level with a lot of upside) - they might well drop below this for a bit at the moment but i think in the run up to their results there are going to be an increasing number of buyers.  STAN has popped up all over the place recently meaning that buyers in the market are very interested and with good results this stock could very easily sneak out above 1000p again (a line it has tested and failed to break for 2-3 months now)

LLOY - disapointment on this one, but I always said that banks are a tough one to call at the moment, not least pre-dominantly British ones.  They are walking a tightrope and I am banking on their not being a run against them or the govt stepping in - this is not a trade and is a gamble that could pay off very handsomely.  As soon as this one nears triple digits i'm out! 40-50pc return on this would be nice but right now it is so hard to call and frankly no one knows! 

Dialight - Tipped by Robbie Burns - i like the look of this share but want to monitor it more closely for a bit before I buy into a dip.  This will be one to look at on a hopeful closeout of my Lloyds (LLOY) play. 

Impatient Ali and the trigger finger

So i ripped my trading plan to shreds as betime I got to my desk this morning LLOY had already fallen 11pc - it looked like it was moving further downwards purely on technicals so I decided to still take a short at 57p, closed at 60p for a small loss.

During this period I decided that due to the bouncing around of the stock for so long that we were unlikely to see further falls and bought 1.1k through my share trading account with selftrade at 58p. I'm still confident the dust will settle and there is great upside potential here...

Eric Daniels - if you are reading this, stop giving my potential profits to those morons tellers who are always trying to cross sell me cr*p that I don't want!

Mixed views on Lloyds

Well what a day on Friday with Lloyds losing over 40% of their value by the close of the day. I think we have further falls to see and I will be watching this one very closely.

My play on this one is to spreadbet short to a target of 45p where there is some recent support. I'll cover at 55p where there is some support as well albeit not as strong.

I then intend to see how much further this goes. I'll look to buy into a bounce at this level (45p share purchase) but my stops will be tight and I will watch this one closely.

Quite frankly my feelings are that Lloyds are not going to be nationalised but there will be a lot of hype around this and a continued sell off tomorrow (this could spill into Tues and Weds - depending on how fast a positive statement can be released to provide some reassurance and bring out the bottom pickers). I do think you have to be careful though as I still feel at this level despite the losses of HBOS that Lloyds is a bargain and we could see some buyers coming in as early as tomorrow afternoon.

My target on the upside for these shares is £1 again - although i will definetely cover at around the 60 mark (Friday's close) and then trail my stop cautiously upwards...

Another one to watch are STAN - due to release results in the next couple of weeks. I think they might surprise and give the market a bit of a lift. I have a large long term holding with these and i think we could see them break ut above the £10 pyschological barrier.


Let's see what tomorrow brings..!

Stockfetcher

Stock fetcher is a great site that allows you to write your own filters using SQL like logic. Its great as it allows you to keep re-running this against it's stock database and to bring otu the items that you want.

http://www.stockfetcher.com/ui2/sffilter2.php

It only works for US stocks so be interested to know if anyone is aware of something similar for UK stocks. I found ADVFN a little restrictive - but that could be more to do with the fact that I am too tight to pay for the decent parts of it!

I've been on a trading hiatus with lots going on at work at the moment. Also gutted about Barclays / banking trade missed opportunity from the beginning of the week.

Both my SDL and IAAP trades are not looking great at the moment but still holding these. I am also looking at Wellstream currently - will add more details on this one shortly

f&&***ked off

So i spent a weekend in Amsterdam musing on my trades for the week when I knew that Barclays results were due to be out and we know that they were going to be good. I believe that the value had not been priced in so this would have been a nice 10pc gain for me and well i thought it would be nice to go long the banks for the day as they basked in BARC's glory...

well the reality was that I placed my limit orders (stupidly only 20bps ahead of the market close on Friday - yeah i was being greedy trying to lock in as much profit as possible and was not waiting for the manic buying). So the market makers screwed me on that one....

I now get into work later and miss all the nice rallies that all the banks have made this AM... so in a hunt to trade I am placing a few spreadbets just to see if i can pick up any further movement.

Im currently long on WellStream (518.0), Icap (222.0 - CLOSED at 232.0 - a potential nice range play here). Still looking for something to invest on from my selftrade account for the next couple of weeks but definetely upset about missing the boat this AM though...

Get over it ali - thats just the way it is sometimes..

LloydsTSB

is bothering me somewhat..... had i not been impatient I could have taken a 20pc rather than 10pc return. that's life. I'd rather take a small gain than risk a big loss. it also gives me confidence to buy on a dip again so will put it back on my watchlist.

I also came away from a simulated trading event last night where you had 1 hour to trade either WTI, Gold, Crude or the US indexes. Needless to say i made about 75 quid which I was pretty pleased with considering I was looking to grab as much free booze as I could. The winner actually made 800 quid in an hour. Which i think is very impressive given that you can't bet more than £10 / point (total) and your total position size is also £10 / point. The winner took an all expenses paid trip to Vegas - I'd personally have taken the cash but hey hum!

LloydsTSB - sold 99.80p

OK - so i did not hold out till 110p but I don't like Lloyds at the moment and i am happy to be rid of them and for a small profit as well. otherwise i fear getting my fingers burnt!

I am sure i will live to trade these another day but a 10pc return in just over 3 weeks is still fine for me! Although it was very nearly a 60pc loss!!! Not a smart move and I am incredibly lucky to get out of this one with my shirt still in tact

This now means that i have just over 1.2k spare to invest in my account. Will be scanning my watchlist later on...I have started looking at VOD now - some nice charts

SDL - buy @ 298p

No sooner had I taken profits on Petrofac i have my cash working for me again by investing in SDL. My target for this is 340-350p. This is a good s/w company, with good charts. Will update further on my thoughts on this shortly

PFC Closed & LloydsTSB ticking higher

Wow - just checked in and PFC sold... maybe I should have set more ambitious targets for this one. That's a nice easy £100 banked there and leaves me with some cash to re-invest now.

Lloyds is edging closer as well, sitting just above a quid at the moment so I need to get researching my next plays sharpish!

Petrofac, BA moving upwards

Wow - i really am pleased with this one. I am now only 9p off my target price of 340p. I'm looking for decent cover though so with the current price at 432.00 I think I will see if my target can be hit tomorrow and cover at 340p. This could go higher so I don't want to cut my profit too soon and I think I have missed the boat for BA quick gains now so no need to release cash to re-invest...

BA is STILL rising as well.. had i the cash I would have bought in at 120p and be happy taking profits anywhere around the 150p mark. My strategy is always a 10pc cover. I'll hold some stocks longer term if i think there is value. Hoping for a dip to buy into.

Resuming my hunt shortly for some nice breakout stocks so hope to update my watches and using ADVFN filters later on tonight!

Summary of the day

Petrofac looks to be a good buy moving up 2.5% after my order filled - coming off of a nice cup and handle pattern I'm confident of this moving steadily upwards. 

I am desperate to get out of LloydsTSB for now - i just want to take profits and 89p has annoyingly proved to be a stubborn resistance line for me..  praying for the banking gods to shine down on me tomorrow! 

BA - shooting up today... getting closer and closer to getting in on this one.  I am a fan of the £1 stocks just because i am lazy and it is easier to calculate risk / reward.  Holding for the dip - possibly swap my Lloyds holdings for this one.

Who knows what tomorrow brings.  My new resolution has to be to avoid trading Crude.  I get greedy, leave it open with no stops and end up losing.  I lost today after dicking around - an idiot trade. My next week's resolution is to stop trading like a tit - its going to cost me dearly otherwise!

If you want to add comments / ask questions, feel free to post here or drop me a line at ali.rees@gmail.com

EURGBP Cash - LONG

Entry: 0.9012 (nice solid support just above the psychological 0.9000 mark) with an initial target of probably 0.9030 where I will move my stop up. Distant target of 0.9080 should be possible although i think unlikely over night.

Only £1 a point as this is a purely technical trade - still would be nice to bank a cheeky £30+ while i am off having a swim.. (sorry for the crap chart quality!)

UPDATE: Made it to 0.9030, covered at 0.9028 and was immediately stopped out before the stock jumped 0.9039 and fell anyway - annoying but would have been more pissed if my 0.9080 prediction was hit. I'm not sure what I did wrong here, maybe too tight with the stop or i should not have stopped at all given I already had strong support at 0.9000 i should have let it bounce around for a while.... would appreciate views on this - this is a really common problem that i have!!

Airlines - something to watch

Took my first profit of £2.72 for the day..... ok you might think what is the point but I often do this just to validate my thoughts on movements. I don't have enough cash in my account to trade it but it is nice to know that I would have been right had i had the funds - and well it's all extra money at the end of the day really isn't it?

Ryanair of course yesterday shot up on the news that the last of their hedged oil contracts have now expired and hopefully should be returning to high proftability. I think they are a good long play although to reassure myself I want to see a good technical signal before I pile in.

The airline sector is a very interesting one at the moment and one that I am keeping my beady little eyes on.

Petrofac - filled 398p

I just got filled at 398p on my order for 247 shares. I'm happy with this price at the moment and as stated my profit target is simply a 10pc return which I think is achieveable in the next 2-3 weeks.

Thinking about it all i need to do is find 2 of these plays a week at the same level and that for me (I generally do not more than 1k per trade is 800 quid) Combine this with a bit of range playing and the beautiful effects of compounding and there is no reason why a year from now that could not provide a full time solid income for me to live off.

Having said that, do you really think it is ever that easy? That's assuming everything always goes to plan (it doesn't!)

The Profitable Lone Ranger

One of my strategies that I have been playing for quite some time is a range trade. It's a great play in these volatile times and means you can take advantage of your favourite shares playing the momentum within these ranges between solid support and resistance. One of my favourite shares for this has been trading between 680 and 900 repeating the pattern in as little as a day but never more than three weeks. I myself have taken advantage of this 6 times in the past 5 months. Although admittedly not the whole range - i tend to grow impatient and play about with my trades - (i'm really trying not to and to stick to a trade plan - IMPOSSIBLY simple sounding thing to do, but impossibly hard in reality!)

Imagine if I had just spreadbet £1 a point for the whole range both long and short (I could not do the reverse on two occassions due to the shorting ban being in place up to the beginning of January). Thats 10 trades x £220 = £2200 - 5% spread = £2090 profit.

That's for taking very little risk with stops 5% away from the support and resistance lines. Depite this however, my meddling cost me and I only made about £900 - a testament to sticking to your trading plan if there ever was one. Another rule for Ali - "stop bloody fiddling"

Luckily I'm also naturally hedged as I actually own a large amount of these shares as part of my longer term portfolio. This might well be a good place for you to start looking for your own range plays as well especially as you will be more intamate with the behaviour of the share.

ADVFN.com is great for flcking through shares a well and it is FREE. I am still trying to figure out how to translate the shares I want to dispay into the stock screeners on the site, but once I figure it out, I will share here.

Ramble over...

Petrofac LONG opened

I have just placed a limit buy order for Petrofac [PFC] at 395p, with a stop at 365p and a profit target of 440p. I know the risk/reward ratios are not the best, crude prices have been falling ad these are so interdependent of the price of oil it's untrue..... but to me, the chart looks good, there is a lot of upside and I put its performance in the market today down to a hangover Monday after such great rallies last week and some traders taking profits. Petrofac have just signed an enormous 2 billion contract, have good fundamentals and will have increased prices with the increasing price of crude (which will inevitably happen, although not in a stable manner)

Take a look at the chart, keep an eye on it's movement tomorrow and or the rest of the week and let me know yor thoughts / comments / questions. I have sworn blind to myself that I will cut this one if it ges Pete Tong.

Let's see if the order is filled!

Day One - done

I don't intend to update this site as frequently as I have done today but I guess I am excited at the public scrutiny of my trades and receiving feedback on this.

I'm still long on my crude position and I intend to hold this, trailing my stop as it moves upwards. I like trading crude although you have to be extremely careful as it is very volatile and reactionary to news. This is why for me it is great to make a few easy hundred points plus on if you time the entry right..

So I am currently up about £100 on my crude bet and have locked in £58 on my EURGBP trade. Not bad for a first day - although I have not been at work so able to focus a little more. Due to only currently having £1000 in my account and not willing to top up anymore at the moment I can't trade much more than this at any given time

Snow causes chaos in London

Volumes are rock bottom today with the snow causing massive disruption in the City.















Check out the A3 as taken by my mother who could walk along it - it was that deserted... quite incredible really but sadly causing a slower day on the markets. I'm currently awaiting the US open but do have a couple of open positions.

Long - EURGBP entry 0.8970 target 0.9000 £2 / point [TARGET HIT: £58 profit]
Long - USCRUDE 44.85, target 46.10 £4 / point [in profit just, trade still open]


My Watchlist

BA (watching)

I have been waiting to buy into BA.. they have had some pretty horrendous results and sadly are actually losing money currently from over-zealous hedging (i mean who really was expcecting $40 / barrel fuel costs a year ago? I feel I have missed the short on this one for now, although if it does go below a quid then it's a definite gren light to buy for me - my current limit order is set for just above the 52 week low a 107p where there is pretty solid support - my stop will be at 100p just in case this stock tanks (not all that unlikely at the moment with the bad weather, poor hdging on BAs part and well of course that small gobal downturn thingimabob!)

LloydsTSB (active - 89p long)
I currently have a shocking trade (share purchase) that i bought into a couple of weeks back - LloydsTSB 89p - it has thankfully since recovered from the mammoth drop the day later and I am looking to take profit at 110p (yes i was confident that the merger settling would cause a belated rally and i broke my rule and did not use a stop on this one!) This is my best and most recent example of a stupid, boredom ridden falling knife trade!!! It's too dangerous to buy into the banks with any real cash as currently we simply don't know what is lying around the corner. I hear those Barclays gamblers mocking me at the moment but I personally think that it is time for me to steer clear and focus on more solid companies.

ICAP (active - 289p long)

I am too afraid to cut losses on this having bought in at 289p thinking that was a bargain. I am a big fan of the brokers at the moment who have seen up to 3-4 fold increases in customer bases during the last 12 months as a result of unprecedented volatility in the market place and a lot of newbie traders joining the scene, causing a large spike in trading volume.....

ICAP are solid I'm determined I will cut losses if this one falls below 210p - i'm willing to risk 25pc on this as i do think this is a good longer term stock with a potential 300% + upside (Do i sound like am not cutting my losses here? definetely i think this is the answer...)

ATD (watching - currently at all time high)

This is a penny share that generally after following Timothy Sykes' trading for quite some time I am happy to only ever SHORT. However, this stock is something very special pointed out to me a few month's back and has been steadily climbing since (today at an all time high). I'm a shorter by nature on penny shares as I think they are very risky and more often than not taking the oposite view to every broker in thisrespect is the best thing to do. There are far too many pump and dumps out there currently.

Read up on it and take a look for yourself. I never feel comfortable buying at all time high's but this company seems solid and they have captured a niche market, providing human tissue for R&D to various companies, with biotech, genetics etc going this is a company that I can see growing and growing. But I don't think these are times to take the risk with such a small business so this remains a watch for me at the moment at least.

The challenge begins

I've finally cleared out my CMC markets account and started actively recording and properly managing the PnL of all the traders that place. Sounds like something any normal trader would do by the very nature of his/ her job, easily churning off portfolio holdings, NAV and total profit/loss to date. Not me! Like most I am sure I have always focused on emphasising the gains and not the losses, the good trades and not the bad etc. Consequently, I have lost over £1000 to date. That total was more like £3000 only back in September until finally the penny dropped and I started investing in a little bit more effort to my trading approach.

At that time my friends would hear me boast of £2000 in a day profits with an account size of approx £3000. This is obviously an incredible return but what i failed to mention is that the following day i would lose £2100 and then another £400 the next and so on.... I fell into the trap that Warren Buffett would refer to as being concerned about my "outer scorecard" - or frankly caring too much about saving face and walking round like I was some kind of master trader everytime I made a win (quickly forgetting the losses prior to it!)... i think most people would actually just call it arrogance to be frank!

I have finally reached the point where I understand the mindset and I can't tolerate the losses anymore. I see it written time and time again and its taken 2 years to drill it into me, "cut your losses quickly and let your profits run" . It is so much harder than you think!

A blanket strategy is the best way to do this I think. The simplest approach that I can recommend is that of Robbie Burns (I just read his book "the naked trader" which is fantastic by the way if you want a great starter book on trading to read). He simply sets his stops at 10% below his entry price and then moves his stops to break even, break even + 5% and so on....

Interestingly enough he does not concern himsekf with looking for resistance pockets at these points and yet seems to consistentky bank on his trades. I am going to look at this approach further... I'm lazy an what's the point in stressing out if you can make money the easy way?

Happy Trading!

My first post

Hi - finally I have made it into the world of blogging. I intend to use this site to chart my progress in my quest to eventually quit my full time job and trade the stock markets full time for a living.

I am 26 years old and have been trading for over 5 years and daily for the previous 2 years. I do this alongside my full time job as a project manager and wanted a place where I could chart my progress, frustrations and maybe even get some input from others. I also created this site for me, random readers, trading newbies and all of my family and friends whom I constantly bore to tears or totally confuse with my incoherent ramblings about my personal investments.

I hope that it proves to be something of interest to all!

My first content post will be coming shortly..

Ali